Back On Track
Back On Track
2025 caught us by surprise. After years of setbacks – the Covid19 pandemic, supply chain crises, inefficient local ports, and loadshedding – this year startled us, in a good way.
The Dolphin Bay team exceeded our internal sales projections as business confidence in South Africa grew on the back of an unexpected economic recovery. Things picked up in the second half of the year especially, and our factories set all-time records for deliveries in South Africa.
Fortunately, we have the infrastructure to manage the increased demand, so when changes like this happen, we can respond quickly.
New appetite for growth and risk
What’s driving that growth? A number of things. In February, the South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry reported that its Business Confidence Index was the highest it had been in the past 13 years. In this environment, businesses are willing to take on new ventures or expand their operations or product lines. We’ve seen that appetite for growth – and risk – among a few of our South African customers this year. It wouldn’t be there if business confidence was still as low as it was, say, four or five years ago.
In South Africa, much of the current confidence stems from structural reforms, such as opening the freight rail infrastructure to third-party operators. These initiatives are starting to show positive results, though they are still young. The fuller impacts will emerge as private operators begin working at ports and on rail networks – an important development for South Africa’s supply chains that we will continue to monitor in 2026.
Another positive economic factor is the turnaround in South Africa’s credit ratings. In November, Standard & Poor’s raised our foreign currency long-term sovereign credit rating from BB- to BB, and our local currency long-term sovereign credit rating from BB to BB+. It’s the first time in nearly two decades that we’ve seen such an improvement. South Africa has also been removed from the FATF “grey list” on international money-laundering, following successful anti-money laundering efforts.
Among the other African countries we serve there was unrest in Tanzania around the general elections causing some market volatility and port congestion. We know that for businesses in many African countries, things can change at any moment.
In terms of international logistics, we had a boring year, and in this context, “boring” is good! We experienced no major delays in our imports or exports, and there were no massive shake-ups.
A decade or so ago, the standard practice was that shipping lines would give us a rate that would apply for the entire year. We’re not back there yet, so things aren’t as “boring” in that sense as ten years ago, but things have stabilised significantly.
"In terms of international logistics, we had a boring year. And in this context, “boring” is good."
The US tariffs announcements were a big concern but, again, there have been no major consequences. Our industry does not focus on US markets; nonetheless, small movements far away have had big effects on us in the past. That did not happen this time. Obviously, certain businesses have been significantly impacted, but from a supply chain and logistics point of view, the tariff announcements haven’t had a big impact on our local industry.
What we’re seeing is a normalisation. Markets have their natural ups and downs, but in 2025, we didn’t have any major upswings or downswings. There was no single event – like Covid in 2020/21, or the war in Ukraine in 2022 – that disrupted the year.
Instead, we had lots of little things that added up to a positive business environment for Dolphin Bay and our customers. Things are improving incrementally. And for now, we’re happy to take those incremental improvements!
Source: Dolphin Bay
